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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Part I
Expected Value Decision Making
Currently selected section: Case Study 2: Patient History
Using a Decision Tree
Assigning Utility
Expected Value and QALYs
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions: Case Study 2
Part III

References


Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Case Study 2 - Patient History
        

You Answered:

Selection BTake the sum of the numerical values for the outcomes after weighting each by the probability that it will occur.

 

Correct


The problem is representing the average outcome of an action that leads to several outcomes that occur by chance. The probability of each outcome is known, and each outcome has a numerical value.

The answer is to take the sum of the numerical values after weighting each by the probability that it will occur.

Example: an action can lead to three outcomes

Outcome Value of outcome Probability of outcome Product of value and probability
A100.550
B200.360
C50.210

The sum of the rows in the right hand column is 50+60+10=110, which is the average outcome, also known as the "expected outcome."


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