|
You
Answered:
 | Subjectively
weight the probabilities based on your personal values and
preferences. |
Incorrect
The correct
answer is: (B).
The problem is representing the average outcome of an action that
leads to several outcomes that occur by chance. The probability
of each outcome is known, and each outcome has a numerical value.
The answer is to take
the sum of the numerical values after weighting each by the probability
that it will occur.
Example: an action
can lead to three outcomes
| Outcome
| Value
of outcome
| Probability
of outcome
| Product
of value and probability
|
|---|
| A | 100 | .5 | 50 |
| B | 200 | .3 | 60 |
| C | 50 | .2 | 10 |
|
The sum of the rows
in the right hand column is 50+60+10=110, which is the average
outcome, also known as the "expected outcome."
|