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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Probability Theory
Case Study 1: Patient History
Bayes' Theorem
Currently selected section: Methods for Estimating Pre-test Probability
Estimating Likelihood Ratios
Sensitivity and Specificity
Interpreting Test Results
Calculating Post-test Probabilities
Post-test Probabilities in Clinical Practice
Conclusions: Case Study 1
Part II
Part III
References

 

Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Methods for Estimating Pre-test Probability

        

 

You Answered:

Selection B1/3

Correct

To convert probability to odds, use the following formula:

Odds = p/(1 - p)

In this case, (1/4)/(1-[1/4]) = 1/3


Since the case study patient's odds are 1 in 3 for having CAD, you should be quite uncertain about whether he has a lesion in his coronary arteries that might cause myocardial ischemia. You might be willing to start medical treatment without being more sure of the diagnosis. However, the patient is worried about his risk of serious heart disease. He wants to know the truth about himself.

You should think of a test as a tool to move probabilities. That's all they do. They change your level of uncertainty.



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