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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Probability Theory
Currently selected section: Case Study 1: Patient History
Bayes' Theorem
Methods for Estimating Pre-test Probability
Estimating Likelihood Ratios
Sensitivity and Specificity
Interpreting Test Results
Calculating Post-test Probabilities
Post-test Probabilities in Clinical Practice
Conclusions: Case Study 1
Part II
Part III
References


Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Case Study 1: Patient History
        

Consider the following case history. The patient is a 65 year old man. His pain has been going on for six weeks. It is substernal. It does not radiate anywhere. He characterizes it as "an ache." The pain seems to come on at random. It is unrelated to exertion or emotional stress. He can continue what he is doing despite the pain. He tried a friend's nitroglycerin. The pain didn't resolve any faster with the nitroglycerin. He has never smoked cigarettes and has never had a diagnosis of myocardial infarction or any heart disease.


Question 1.3.1

Think about this patient's story of chest pain. Try to pick a number that represents your probability that the pain is due to myocardial ischemia.

My estimate of the range of probabilities is:

Selection A0 to 0.20
Selection B0.21 to 0.40
Selection C 0.41 to 0.60
Selection D0.61 to 0.80
Selection E0.81 to 1.00


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