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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Probability Theory
Case Study 1: Patient History
Bayes' Theorem
Methods for Estimating Pre-test Probability
Estimating Likelihood Ratios
Sensitivity and Specificity
Interpreting Test Results
Calculating Post-test Probabilities
Currently selected section: Post-test Probabilities in Clinical Practice
Conclusions: Case Study 1
Part II
Part III
References


Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Post-test Probability in Clinical Practice
        

The second step in deciding which of two tests -- dobutamine echo or exercise ECG -- is preferable, involves their application in clinical practice. You must decide if the post-test probability would make a difference in the treatment of the patient. Would you do anything differently as a result of these findings?

Table 1.10.1: Post-test Probabilities
Dobutamine echocardiogram Exercise ECG
pre-test odds 1 in 3 1 in 3
post-test odds
test positive
1.501.00
test negative 0.050.14
post-test p[CAD]
test positive 0.60 0.50
test negative 0.04 0.12

 

Problem 1.10.1

Look at the post-test probability after a positive test and think how you would respond in the situations that follow.


Question 1.10.1.1

Would raising the probability of disease from 0.25 to 0.60 alter your decision to treat the patient with a beta-blocker?

Selection A Probably yes
Selection BProbably no


Question 1.10.1.2

Should raising the probability of disease from 0.25 to 0.60 lead to further diagnostic testing?

Selection AProbably yes
Selection BProbably no



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